November 4 - Unrest Grows as the Election Remains In Doubt

Summary: Unrest stirred in America’s cities as its presidential election remains unsettled.  President Trump took a 204-190 electoral college lead due to surprise wins in Arizona and Maine’s second district, although his path to 270 remains improbable.  Court cases, technical issues, and uncounted ballots have delayed final vote counts in nine states, including the crucial battlegrounds of Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan, Florida, and Ohio.  Though not thought of as a battleground state, Georgia, is also too close to call, thanks to an effective mobilization effort led by Vice Presidential Candidate Stacey Abrams.  As people take to the streets in those states, it appears increasingly likely this election will be settled in the courts.  End Summary

Trump Wins Arizona, Too Close to Call in other States Thanks to Strong Libertarian Showing

The Libertarian Party performed well beyond expectations in several western states, resulting in several states unexpectedly too close to call and a clear win for President Trump in Arizona, although Democrat Mark Kelly outperformed Joe Biden to win Arizona’s senate seat.  Although still too close to call, Biden is still expected to win Nevada and New Mexico, though Trump is leading in Maine’s 2nd congressional district.

At midnight on November 3, nearly all the votes in Colorado were in, thanks to its experience in mail in voting.  However a large number of uncounted ballots were located the morning of November 4 from Arapaho and Adams counties, west of Denver.  Although some votes remain outstanding, Libertarian Jill Stein managed to win almost 10% of the vote total in Colorado, up from the 5% Gary Johnson managed in 2016.  Colorado is the birthplace of the Libertarian Party.  Green Party candidate Jill Stein also improved, from just over 1.3% of the vote to 1.8%.  Incumbent Republican senator Cory Gardener appears to have also won in Colorado.

Georgia Becomes a Battleground State

Vice Presidential Candidate Stacey Abrams mobilized an effective defense of voting rights in Georgia, using the work and life of Congressman John Lewis as a rallying cry and her personal experience running against Governor Brian Kemp as a platform.   Abrams was able to mobilize an extensive on the ground network developed after her 2018 loss to Kemp to proactively register people to vote, disseminate information about voting rights, and detect and respond to allegations of interference.  

After months of protests, Atlanta was one of several cities targeted by the Trump Administration with heavy deployments of federal law enforcement officers, but Georgia was the only state which managed to fully reject the deployment by mobilizing conservatives to object (ironically, led by spurned former Attorney General Jeff Sessions).  Although Georgia National Guard troops have been deployed in large numbers in August to confront both continued violence and Georgia’s out of control COVID-19 outbreak (which Kemp handled by fighting against local mask restrictions, rather than science), Georgia reported record turnout across the state.

However, Georgia Democrats’ campaign was not well replicated in other states, which relied on legal firepower rather than grassroots activism.  With some predicting a landslide, the Biden campaign’s choice to devote so much of Abram’s attention to gaining new ground in southern states such as Georgia seems to have backfired.  

Full Blown War Over Battleground States

Scores of lawyers have descended on Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan, Florida, and Ohio - where Election Day issues resulted in long lines and allegations of voter suppression from the Democrats and voter fraud from the Republicans have resulted in a seemingly intractable mess.

Republicans in Wisconsin pointed to images of people voting in Milwaukee at daybreak on November 4 as proof local Democratic officials were violating elections laws.  Democrats say these voters - which turned out in record numbers despite severe cuts to polling sites -were in line at the time the polls closed and were voting lawfully.  Lawyers for the Democrats say that despite a statewide plan to mail absentee ballots to every registered voter, many minority voters did not receive the promised ballots.  Adding to delays were inexperienced poll workers working out of unfamiliar locations, delayed by the time it took to sanitize voter booths. 

Voters in North Carolina experienced similar issues, but with additional concerns about direct voter intimidation by so-called “Neighborhood Watch” groups.  Lawyers for the Democratic Party are asking for a re-run of the election in Charlotte, where a viral video emerged of a group of unidentified armed men surrounded a polling site.  Lawyers for the Republican Party say that the group only briefly cut of the site from prospective voters - but to assist a Department of Justice elections observer accessing the site, not with the intent of deterring voters.

In Florida, high turnout of Cuban American and Venezuelan American voters was driven by President Trump’s last minute decision to grant asylum to a large contingent of Cuban rafters which arrived in October, despite heavy seas.  Despite Governor Ron DeSantis’ low approval ratings for his poor handling of COVID-19, Senator Marco Rubio’s leading role in convincing President Trump to award large amounts of discretionary stimulus funding to Florida nursing homes may have been enough to propel the President to a win in his home state.

Voters in Michigan were less fortunate with respect to stimulus money, which was withheld from the auto industry by Executive Order (which is being challenged in an ongoing court case).  Trump is expected to lose heavily in Michigan thanks to this decision and the President’s open battle with Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who received high marks for her handling of COVID-19, and battle against the Federal Government’s deployment of platoons of heavily armed DEA and ATF agents to Detroit to “crack down on  lawless hoodlums.” Although voter turnout in Detroit was low (possibly due to ongoing fears of arbitrary arrest), exit poll indicate suburban Detroit voters voted against Trump 2:1.  However, the state remains uncalled due to difficulties tabulating absentee ballots.